by Zou cheaponsale
5 months before, when GM Chief Operating Officer (COO) Henderson forecast that the genuine urgent position in the United States automobile market will emerge in the first half of 2009. 5 months subsequent, the American automobile market turbulence verified him prophetic, even Henderson himself has been shoved to the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) on the chair, prepared for GM to bypass the last disintegrate of one stroke.
March 29, General Motors CEO Wagoner submitted his resignation. The next day, Obama refused the President of the United States GM and Chrysler’s restructuring arrange, GM in addition requested the next 60 days, bigger efforts ought draw close up with the restructuring arrange, or only look for bankruptcy protection. At the matching time, the United States, “three” in another Chrysler, and Fiat have in addition moved into into a worldwide association plan agreement.
Now, it can be said that the U.S. auto oversized to the terminal line of life and death, maybe in two months afterwards, the American motor vehicle development will have a noteworthy change. Since distribute to the worldwide fiscal squall at the time, the world depiction of drive vehicles has now commenced on the loose; With advancing extent down of the critical purpose, the North American market modifications subversive clear advancing movement, which will be the pattern of the worldwide auto development and what the pattern of Products affected? For the development of Chinese automobile development which Enlightenment? In this interview with the National Information Center for knowledge supply development, Xu Changming, chief director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute and a examiner Zhang Xin.
There is still wish that the United States Automobile
Some commentators accept as factual that the Government of the United States intervention in general so critical, or will absolutely go under GM. In this consider, Zhang Xin believe, if GM bankruptcy, in detail is not easily due to incompetence to extend to function while the bankruptcy, but the Government, trade unions, administration, employees between the outcomes of a sequence of games. But mechanically, a premier general-purpose or, in specific in the new power and hydrogen fuel expertise has benefits, the present need to start a new power, electric driven vehicles in transition.
Even though the area of electric driven vehicles at GM to start previous, and the formation of a more complicated mechanical scheme, but because before the financial urgent position of the customary American vehicle sales have been steady, there will be no hurry to the advancement of universal electric driven vehicles. Zhang Xin believe should grab this opening now.
Development through widespread knowledge, Xu Chang-ming furthermore accepts as factual that the United States should step up for power charges, financial forms of development, the future oil charges will extend to advance, the United States “tall wide” dead end mode of development of the models.
The worldwide automobile development or change the pattern of
Xu Changming think, regardless of whether or not GM will change, the pattern of the global automotive industry, great changes will certainly have to happen. Since any major economic crisis will have significant ramifications, and the United States and Japan will crack down on large enterprises.
The North American market has shrunk considerably, the large-scale accept the brunt of the battle against the United States are localized vehicle prices. At the identical time, because North America is Japan’s most significant aim the globalization market, Japanese vehicle charges are furthermore hard hit.
Prior to this, to Honda, Toyota for the day representing the Department of forms are advised in the financial urgent position in a somewhat advantageous place, but the present position, because the total North American market fall too much, producing in the general influence can not own a enterprise . Statistics display that sales have been from the United States market in 2007 dropped to 17 million of the 13 million last year, likely only this year come to 9,000,000.
In show up, Xu Changming consider motor vehicle financial gatherings in Europe changed by the quite tiny mass of globalization for instance objective markets, mostly in the development of arising markets, arising markets, the slighter the consequence of fiscal crisis; and Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other high-end brand label in the worldwide quite balanced distribution.
Zhang believes that the development of the automotive industry from the global situation, Sino-Japanese economic crisis at the Department of the development potential of cars are still the strongest. Since, as represented by Toyota, Japanese car prices in the business philosophy, management, product details on the deal to be better than the U.S. and European companies. If the U.S. economy out of the bottom of this year, it will be possible Japanese cars are the biggest winners, but there is no profit if the last “who also can not carry.”
Zhang believes that the economic crisis, only to maintain the survival of the funds. If sales in emerging markets but it does not bring good returns, or no meaning. For instance, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese car prices in emerging markets also have very good sales, but its profitability and strong high-end products, mainly in the North American market. When the 31 percent decline in the U.S. market, Toyota on the loss of that in emerging markets only, “go traffic” and not effective, the same will not work.
Behind the prosperity of the Chinese automobile market is concerned
Same even though the financial crisis affected the Chinese automobile market, but because of policy changes adjusted to have a great opportunity for the domestic market. Maintenance fee abolition of falling oil prices, car purchase tax by half, “car to the countryside policies” have contributed greatly to the small displacement and low-cost model development.
According to Xu Changming examination, 80 out of 100 owned by to their own brand label of such types, it modifications from a guideline consideration, the own brand label is beneficial. Xu Chang-ming adjudicator, the next two years are the development of own brand labels the historic possibility of the second period. The first possibility in past files are from 2002 to 2007, the total automobile market at an midpoint annual rate of more than 35% expansion in own brand labels to rousing opportunities; this guideline are the chances at the market as a total the circumstances is not good Next, there is apparently conducive to the development of unconnected brands.
XU Chang said, from the first half of this year, compared the situation look better, because this round of market recovery, do not rely on one well-developed, second-class areas, but mainly by the relatively backward areas are market driven. Start-up of these markets, relatively longer period of time will continue, because these economies less affected and is in a period of rapid growth, this market will in the near future to maintain good level of development.
However, Xu Chang-ming incisive out that the guideline in addition commanded to chances for our nation vehicle will lessen the effectiveness of enterprises, tiny displacement the quick expansion of low-priced types, but the complete heading down movement in profits.
Zhang trusts that the prevailing so-called “good”, only the “quantity” a manifestation of, but if yield descent, and there is no large allotment of farther significance. Such an result is in all likelihood to source the Government to stimulate the overdraft, the future of sustainable development is a horrid solution.
Zhang said that China’s auto market is historic possibility for the survival of the fittest, if missed, then the Chinese will evermore be with the motor vehicle standing in the world behind the giants. 2008, China’s greatest enterprises, Shanghai Automotive motor vehicle (the goods produced of 1.75 million last year) vehicles can not move into the world apex 10 enterprises, tenth 1,880,000 are goods produced, have tens of thousands of entities of the gap 10.
Zhang trusts that China’s auto market is still in the “Government of the warlords under the security of scrimmage.” Only by letting enterprises to optimize the superiority, faults enterprises be abolished fully completed, the Chinese can become a truly tough car.